Tuesday, February 9, 2010

The Future Of Kashmir? The Future of Kashmir? "Seven" Possible Solutions!

The Future of Kashmir? "Seven" Possible Solutions!

The status quo

Kashmir has been a flashpoint between India and Pakistan for more than 60 years. Currently a boundary - the Line of Control - divides the region in two, with one part administered by India and one by Pakistan. India would like to formalise this status quo and make it the accepted international boundary. But Pakistan and Kashmiri activists reject this plan because they both want greater control over the region.

Kashmir joins Pakistan

Pakistan has consistently favoured this as the best solution to the dispute. In view of the state's majority Muslim population, it believes that it would vote to become part of Pakistan. However a single plebiscite held in a region which comprises peoples that are culturally, religiously and ethnically diverse, would create disaffected minorities. The Hindus of Jammu, and the Buddhists of Ladakh have never shown any desire to join Pakistan and would protest at the outcome.

Kashmir joins India

Such a solution would be unlikely to bring stability to the region as the Muslim inhabitants of Pakistani-administered Jammu and Kashmir, including the Northern Areas, have never shown any desire to become part of India.

Independent Kashmir

The difficulty of adopting this as a potential solution is that it requires India and Pakistan to give up territory, which they are not willing to do. Any plebiscite or referendum likely to result in a majority vote for independence would therefore probably be opposed by both India and Pakistan. It would also be rejected by the inhabitants of the state who are content with their status as part of the countries to which they already owe allegiance.

A smaller independent Kashmir

An independent Kashmir could be created from the Kashmir Valley - currently under Indian administration - and the narrow strip of land which Pakistan calls Azad Jammu and Kashmir. This would leave the strategically important regions of the Northern Areas and Ladakh, bordering China, under the control of Pakistan and India respectively. However both India and Pakistan would be unlikely to enter into discussions which would have this scenario as a possible outcome.

Independent Kashmir Valley

An independent Kashmir Valley has been considered by some as the best solution because it would address the grievances of those who have been fighting against the Indian Government since the insurgency began in 1989. But critics say that, without external assistance, the region would not be economically viable.

The Chenab formula

This plan, first suggested in the 1960s, would see Kashmir divided along the line of the River Chenab. This would give the vast majority of land to Pakistan and, as such, a clear victory in its longstanding dispute with India. The entire valley with its Muslim majority population would be brought within Pakistan's borders, as well as the majority Muslim areas of Jammu.


suresh_mishra said...

I am a citizen of India, and i dont believe or agree with this plan-the 10 year solution. I favour status quo. The day GoI agrees to such a mindless proposal is the day i will stand up to protest.

This has nothing to do with peace in the Valley. The valley is peacefull right now, and we'v had peacefull elections. Peace does not mean plebicite or anything else for that matter. It means normal functioning in the state. It means that the people are happy. People can be happy provided the right atmosphere, right functioning, right jobs, etc. It means there should be no excesses by the security forces there among a hundred other things.

What i do want however is that there should not be any violence in the valley, and the security forces to be checked. There have been not one but many instances, when the security forces there have abused their powers. This should be stopped somehow, there should be better checks and balances there. The Army regularly meets out punishments to those found guilty, but not nearly enough get caught. Then there are local policemen(Kashmiri) who abuse the citizens there, and what happens is that the Army gets the blame for their actions as well. Either ways, it has to and should stop.

Pakistan can not and will not be allowed to dictate the tempo of the Valley again. A wide variety of extremists in the valley have been shot in COIN ops, the momentum must not be lost. Every terrorist must be shot. But there must be adequate balances to ensure no innocent gets caught. A small percentage of errors are expected, but not even near the scale of what has gone on there for a long time.

Peace in the valley does not mean a compromise with Pakistan.

Nihat Ambijat said...

The out of box solutions given, here:
1) is certainly not the south Asian approach, we do not solve our problems like that;
2) any compromise is arrived only by the mutual exchange;
3) an exchange happens only when there is desire to move on together;
4) desirousness of such a kind be seen in a manner in which there is asymmetric balance of power with ample scope to grow;
5) asymmetric balance of power is realised only by economic power first, military power, next and then the power to bring in peace, the third.
6) the time needed for such conditions is at least 5-7 years from now on;
7) by 2015 the solution is bound to arrive either way.
Things are perceivably moving in the desired direction, let's hope that all comes to final picture that satisfies all and nobody thinks of himself as a loser.

Anonymous said...

scenario 8........go back to 1947 (which is the start of problem)....merge India and Pakistan....and then ask Kashmiri people what they want.

Sorry for trolling but this problem doesnt have a solution.

Azzam said...

Kashmir dispute is the only major problem we have with India.

There would be peace, if only Kashmir dispute is solved.

Ali dar said...

Why cant you Indians accept reality which is Pakistan and India are two separate sovereign nations? And why is it that Indians always cry over partition and Pakistanis are happy we separated from India? I thought India was doing so well, wouldn't it be Pakistan regretting partition? NO, WE ARE HAPPY WE SEAPARATED AND WE ARE HAPPY TO BE PAKISTANIS! WE DONT WANT TO BE PART OF INDIA!

Anonymous said...

The world is realizing now what is going on in Kashmir. I'm glad Obama is talking about it, the 61 year old dispute must come to an end for both India and Pakistan to move on.

If there was no Kashmir problem, there would not be any India-Pakistan tensions rising. The center of India-Pakistan problem is Kashmir.